PolymarketSignal published
Flanagan Likely Wins Minnesota Democratic Senate Nomination
Buy YES
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
24h volume $71kMarket deadline Aug 11P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake
Polymarket72¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 12
Aug 8 forecast
Flanagan is likely to win the Democratic nomination because she holds the party endorsement and leads in the larger pre-primary poll, though a tied survey keeps uncertainty alive.
Points to NO
- A competing SurveyUSA poll shows the race tied at 40%-40% with about 16% undecided, undermining the PPP lead and showing Craig can match her.KSTP/SurveyUSA poll shows DFL Senate race neck-and-neck at 40%-40% with ~16% undecided, contradicting PPP lead.Evidence
- No primary results have been reported or certified, and the election has not yet occurred, leaving open the possibility of an upset on August 11.No primary results have been reported or certified; resolution depends on Aug. 11 vote.Evidence
Points to YES
- Flanagan won the DFL endorsement in late May, giving her party infrastructure, credibility, and organizational backing heading into the primary.Flanagan won DFL endorsement in late May 2026; Craig skipped convention to run in primary.Evidence
- The PPP poll shows Flanagan with a 14-point lead and a strong +32 net favorability among likely Democratic primary voters.PPP poll July 23-24, 2026 (N=672) shows Flanagan 46%, Craig 32%, 22% unsure; Flanagan net favorability +32.Evidence
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