PolymarketSignal published
Flanagan Likely Wins Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary
Buy YES
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
24h volume $71kMarket deadline Aug 11P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake
Polymarket70¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES70¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 12
Aug 7 forecast
Peggy Flanagan is likely the Democratic Senate nominee, backed by the party endorsement and a strong primary poll lead despite one tied survey.
Points to NO
- A conflicting July KSTP/SurveyUSA poll shows the race tied at 40% each, indicating Craig remains competitive and turnout dynamics could erase Flanagan’s lead.Another poll (KSTP/SurveyUSA, July 2026) shows Craig and Flanagan neck-and-neck at 40% each.Evidence
Points to YES
- Flanagan secured the Minnesota DFL endorsement in late May, giving her party infrastructure and signaling strength heading into the primary.Flanagan won DFL endorsement May 30, 2026; Craig skipped convention to go straight to primary.Evidence
- A July PPP poll shows Flanagan leading Craig by 14 points among likely Democratic primary voters, suggesting a clear voter preference.Poll (PPP, July 23-24, 2026) shows Flanagan leading Craig 46%-32% among likely Democratic primary voters.Evidence
- Craig skipped the endorsement convention to go straight to the primary, which can signal weakness in party-base consolidation and may limit her organizational reach compared with the endorsed candidate.Flanagan won DFL endorsement May 30, 2026; Craig skipped convention to go straight to primary.Evidence
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