PolymarketSignal published
No Senior US-Iran Meeting Expected By End Of July
Buy NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+12%$100 paper stake
Polymarket22¢ → 13¢
Our position · NO78¢ → 87¢
Signal endedJul 21
Jul 14 forecast
A formal US-Iran meeting is very unlikely by July 31 because recent mutual airstrikes make convening senior-level diplomacy politically prohibitive within the remaining days.
Points to NO
- US airstrikes targeted Iranian positions, July 14US military executed airstrikes on Iran, July 14Evidence
- Iranian military struck US bases, July 13Iranian forces attacked US installations in Bahrain and Jordan, July 13Evidence
- US reinstated Iranian naval blockade, July 13US administration resumed port blockade operations, July 13Evidence
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