Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution+54%$100 paper stake

Kalshi65¢ → 100¢

Oct 15 forecast

Container capacity returning to the Suez Canal has recent weekly transit counts straddling the 300 mark.

The Suez Canal is in the middle of a slow, carrier-led recovery from the Red Sea disruption, and this week's expected transit count sits almost exactly on the 300 line. The most recent complete weekly reading, the seven days through October 11, averaged 41.7 transits a day, which is roughly 292 over a week and just short of the mark, and it was 3.2 percent below the week before. The week before that, the seven days through October 4, came in at 302, so the last two measured weeks straddle the threshold rather than sitting clearly on one side. What lifts the assessment above the line is the direction of travel in capacity rather than the newest weekly print. Container capacity using the canal passed half its pre-disruption level in early October for the first time since the attacks began, large container ship transits from July through September ran at more than ten times their 2025 level, CMA CGM has committed to the canal as a permanent route with its ships transiting on October 13, and independent tracking of the fourth quarter shows weekly totals near 325. Against that, only about a third of container capacity on the two viable routings actually uses the canal, security in the southern Red Sea remains unsettled after a small-arms attack on a container ship in the week before October 12, and the official series lags several days, so the window's own counts will not be visible until after it closes. Markets currently treat clearing the 300-transit mark as the favored outcome, though with less conviction than this forecast carries, and the single strongest consideration behind that difference is the steady, publicly announced return of carrier services to the canal that is not yet fully visible in completed weekly totals. The window is short, the daily pace required is a little over 43, and the canal has printed at or near that level repeatedly in recent weeks, so totals clearing the mark are more likely than totals falling short.

Points to YES

Major carriers are committing to the Suez Canal as a permanent routing rather than a temporary detour, which adds scheduled capacity to the canal week by week.
On October 13, 2026, CMA CGM said it was continuing to return its services to the Suez Canal as a permanent and sustainable route, and its ships PANTHEON and MONTE CRISTI transited that day.
Canal container capacity has climbed past half its pre-disruption level for the first time since the attacks began, putting the recovery on a higher plateau than earlier in 2026.
In the first two weeks of October 2026, container-ship capacity transiting the canal exceeded 50 percent of its pre-disruption level for the first time since the Houthi attacks began.
Recent weekly totals have already reached the threshold, and fourth-quarter tracking puts the typical week above it, so clearing 300 does not require a break from current behavior.
PortWatch estimated 302 canal transits in the seven days through October 4, and separate fourth-quarter tracking showed an average of about 325 transits a week.

Points to NO

The governing series' newest weekly average sits just under the pace needed, and it fell slightly week over week, so the latest measured state is marginally short of the line.
The seven-day average through October 11, 2026 was 41.7 transits a day, about 292 over a week, and 3.2 percent lower than the preceding seven-day period.
Security in the southern Red Sea is unsettled, and a serious attack could prompt carriers to divert again mid-window and cut transits.
A 2,400-TEU container ship reportedly came under small-arms fire in the southern Red Sea in the week before October 12, 2026, even as Asia-Europe services kept returning to the canal.

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