PolymarketSignal published
US Iran Strike Pause Likely Meets Deadline
Buy YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
24h volume $600kMarket deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+261%$100 paper stake
Polymarket22¢ → 80¢
Our position · YES22¢ → 80¢
Signal endedAug 5
Jul 29 forecast
It is probable the ceasefire counts, because US strikes on Iran paused around July 24, anchoring the 14-day window by July 25 before July 31, though resolution hinges on rule interpretation.
Points to NO
- A hidden or unreported strike between July 25-29 could reset the clock, though no credible reports exist.Evidence
Points to YES
- US direct strikes on Iran paused after ~July 24, with no qualifying strikes reported July 25-29.Evidence
- The resolution rules explicitly allow the 14-day period to complete after the end date if anchored on or before it (deadline_governing_quote).P5
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