PolymarketSignal published Jul 8Q forecast updated 9d ago

Iran Unlikely To Formally Quit Memorandum Talks By August

Buy NO

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

24h volume $116kMarket deadline Aug 15P(YES)

Realized · held to resolution−7%$100 paper stake

Polymarket32¢ → 37¢

Our position · NO68¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 17

Jul 8 forecast

Iran is unlikely to formally withdraw from the memorandum of understanding talks because it gains more by suspending participation and litigating US bad faith.

Points to NO

Iranian FM omitted formal withdrawal
Iranian Foreign Ministry protested US MOU violations without withdrawal, July 8 2026
Evidence
IRGC launched kinetic retaliation
IRGC claimed strikes on 85 US military facilities, July 8 2026
Evidence
US President declared MOU over
US President Trump declared Islamabad MOU over, July 8 2026
Evidence

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