Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

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Entry · YES56¢

PublishedSep 5

Sep 5 forecast

Independent August estimates cluster just above the threshold, so a twelve-month CPI rate above 3.3% is favored but far from guaranteed.

July headline CPI was 3.4%, while current August estimates remain above 3.3%, supported by rebounding gasoline prices and persistent input costs. The margin is thin: core inflation slowed, apartment rents dipped in August, and several assessments indicate tariff and energy spillovers are fading. An above-threshold August reading is therefore favored but far from guaranteed, because modest component or rounding surprises could change the result.

Points to YES

July’s 3.4% headline rate gives August inflation a narrow buffer above the threshold.
On August 12, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that all-items CPI increased 3.4% over the twelve months ending in July 2026.
The latest Cleveland Fed estimate places August headline inflation slightly above 3.3%.
On September 4, the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast estimated August 2026 year-over-year CPI inflation at 3.38%.
A separate private forecast also expects August inflation to remain at 3.4%.
On September 4, RBC Economics forecast a 0.4% monthly headline CPI increase and a 3.4% year-over-year rate for August 2026.

Points to NO

Underlying inflation softened before August, limiting evidence of broad price acceleration.
On August 12, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that CPI excluding food and energy slowed to 2.5% year over year in July from 2.6% in June.
Falling apartment rents point toward continued restraint in housing-related inflation.
On September 2, national apartment data showed average rents fell 0.03% from July to August 2026.

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