PolymarketSignal published
Kostyantynivka Expected To Hold Out Through July
Buy NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+32%$100 paper stake
Polymarket38¢ → 18¢
Our position · NO62¢ → 82¢
Signal endedJul 20
Jul 13 forecast
Russia is unlikely to capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 because the Institute for the Study of War maps territorial changes conservatively, lagging well behind battlefield claims.
Points to NO
- Ukrainian forces retained Pravoberezhna industrial areaMashovets confirmed Ukrainian retention of industrial area near Pravoberezhna Street, July 12 2026Evidence
- ISW mapping requires visual consolidation proofISW strictly excludes infiltration from Assessed Control, July 13 2026
- Russian advance averages 50 meters dailyCSIS assessed average advance of 50 meters per day around Kostyantynivka, July 1 2026Evidence
Points to YES
- Russian forces advanced north of stationISW reported Russian advance north of Kostyantynivka railway station, July 12 2026Evidence
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