Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

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Entry · YES57¢

PublishedSep 5

Sep 5 forecast

August forecasts cluster around 3.4% as gasoline costs rebound, so CPI inflation above 3.3% is favored but far from guaranteed.

July inflation remained above the threshold, while leading estimates indicate stronger August price growth as gasoline rebounds and housing disinflation loses momentum. Cooling core inflation, falling apartment rents, and fading tariff effects create meaningful downside risk. On balance, persistent energy and services pressure makes CPI inflation above 3.3% favored but far from guaranteed.

Points to YES

The latest high-frequency estimate places August inflation narrowly above the threshold.
On August 28, the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast estimated August annual CPI inflation at 3.37% and monthly inflation at 0.36%.
Economists expect a sizable August monthly price increase.
On September 4, economists surveyed by Reuters expected August CPI to rise 0.4% from July.
July inflation entered August already above the market threshold.
The July report released August 12 showed annual headline CPI at 3.4%, down from 3.5% in June.

Points to NO

Recent CPI momentum has softened across both headline and core measures.
The July report showed annual headline inflation slowing to 3.4% and core inflation slowing to 2.5%.
Weak rental conditions could restrain the heavily weighted shelter component.
On September 2, August apartment rents were reported to have fallen 0.03% from July.

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