Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

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Entry · YES62¢

PublishedSep 8

Sep 8 forecast

August gasoline gains are expected to preserve elevated headline inflation, so U.S. CPI inflation above 3.3% is favored but far from guaranteed.

Headline CPI was 3.4% in July, and several August previews expect rebounding energy prices to preserve that annual rate. A reading above 3.3% is therefore favored but far from guaranteed, because subdued core inflation and fading tariff pressure leave little cushion if gasoline contributes less than expected.

Points to YES

July inflation was already just above the cutoff, limiting the additional pressure needed in August.
On August 12, the July 2026 CPI-U was reported 3.4% above its year-earlier level.
Fresh August forecasts cluster above the threshold, though only narrowly.
On September 7, Credit Agricole projected August headline CPI inflation at 3.39% year over year, up from an unrounded 3.36% in July.
Rebounding gasoline prices should reverse some of the energy drag that restrained recent CPI readings.
On August 26, gasoline prices were reported to have rebounded during August, with the increase expected to lift that month’s inflation reading.

Points to NO

Underlying inflation is comparatively subdued, leaving the headline rate unusually dependent on volatile energy prices.
In July 2026, CPI excluding food and energy rose 2.5% over the preceding year, down from 2.6% in June.
Recent headline inflation has been easing toward the threshold rather than moving decisively away from it.
By July 2026, annual CPI inflation had fallen to 3.4% from 4.2% in May.

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