Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in August 2026?

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Signal ended

Entry · YES84¢

PublishedSep 3

Sep 2 forecast

The latest nowcast remains above the threshold as gasoline and business costs rise, so August year-over-year CPI above 3.2% is highly likely.

July headline CPI was already 3.4%, and the September 2 Cleveland Fed nowcast places August at 3.38%. Rebounding gasoline prices, persistent manufacturing input costs, and elevated energy and transportation expenses reinforce the case for another reading above 3.2%. Cooling core inflation and shelter costs create downside risk, but the available August indicators do not point to a sufficiently large decline.

Points to YES

The latest CPI nowcast places August inflation above the 3.2% threshold.
On September 2, 2026, the Cleveland Fed estimated August year-over-year CPI inflation at 3.38%.
July CPI entered the final month above the threshold.
On August 12, 2026, July headline CPI was reported at 3.4% year over year.
An August gasoline rebound adds pressure to headline inflation.
On August 26, 2026, AP News assessed that rebounding gasoline prices would likely increase August inflation.

Points to NO

Underlying inflation has cooled substantially, limiting broad-based price pressure.
In July 2026, core CPI rose 0.2% for the month and slowed to 2.5% year over year.
Cooling shelter costs and fading tariff effects could restrain headline inflation.
On August 12, 2026, James Knightley expected shelter to exert downward pressure and tariffs’ inflationary influence to fade rapidly.

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