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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 7, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+54%$100 paper stake
Polymarket65¢ 100¢
Our position · YES65¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Aug 28 forecast

Reports of imminent Fable 5.1 testing point toward launch, so a next Mythos-class model release by the deadline is favored but far from guaranteed.

Alleged testing and reports of an imminent Fable 5.1 release suggest launch preparations may be advanced, while Anthropic previously said more capable models were coming within months. The case remains fragile because Anthropic has confirmed none of the recent claims, test candidates were reportedly withdrawn, its known stronger internal model was not cleared for release, and official release notes remained silent. A qualifying public launch is therefore favored but far from guaranteed.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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