PolymarketSignal published
Hormuz Daily Transits Almost Certain To Average Under 20
Buy YES
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
24h volume $1kMarket deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+95%$100 paper stake
Polymarket46¢ → 90¢
Our position · YES46¢ → 90¢
Signal endedJul 20
Average daily Hormuz transits will almost certainly sit below 20 on July 31 because the July 13 expansion of strikes to Bahrain and Oman has entrenched the shutdown.
Points to NO
- US executive threatened unilateral transit escorts.Trump stated US will probably run Strait, July 13.
Points to YES
- Commercial vessels disabled AIS tracking infrastructure.Transiting tankers switched off AIS transponders, July 12.
- Physical transit counts dropped to six.Kpler recorded six vessels transited Strait, July 12.
- Iran claimed strikes against Bahrain and Oman.Iran claimed missile strikes on Bahrain and Oman, July 13.
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