PolymarketSignal published Jul 16Q forecast updated 27d ago

Anthropic Seen Holding Opus Launch Past July 22

Buy NO

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?

Market deadline Jul 22P(YES)

Realized · held to resolution+150%$100 paper stake

Polymarket60¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO40¢ → 100¢

Signal endedJul 23

Jul 16 forecast

Anthropic is very unlikely to publicly release a new Claude Opus by July 22 because official documentation still lists Opus 4.8 as the current model.

Points to NO

Official docs and credible reports show no new Opus; leaks are unverified and dismissed.
Evidence
Only six days remain and recent Anthropic releases have been Sonnet/Fable-focused, not Opus.
Evidence

Points to YES

Unverified X/Vertex leaks suggest an imminent Opus 5 launch possibly tied to July 19 access changes.
Evidence

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