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PolymarketSignal published

Hormuz Traffic Likely Stays Below Weekly Threshold

Buy YES

Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?

24h volume $265kMarket deadline Jul 26P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold−89%$100 paper stake
Polymarket42¢ → 5¢
Our position · YES42¢ → 5¢
Signal endedJul 31
Jul 24 forecast

IMF Portwatch will likely report fewer than 50 Hormuz transits for July 20-26 because conflict-driven suppression has collapsed daily crossings to a trickle.

Points to NO
  • Oman introduced a temporary phased traffic-management plan that could allow limited, organized safe passages through the strait.
    Evidence
  • Dark voyages and reporting lags mean IMF may later capture vessels not initially reported, or issue upward revisions before full publication.
    Evidence
Points to YES
  • IMF Portwatch and maritime trackers show daily Hormuz crossings collapsed to about 10 for July 13-19 and to just three on July 21, with tanker transits falling sharply.
    Evidence
  • The conflict is intensifying: Iran suspended its MoU, US strikes continue nightly, and attacks on commercial vessels persist, deterring owners.
    Evidence

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