Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,500 on Aug 28?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · YES45¢

PublishedAug 26

Aug 26 forecast

Bitcoin enters the final days above the threshold with strong spot-fund inflows, so a price of $78,500 or higher is favored but far from guaranteed.

Bitcoin was near $78,900 on August 26 after briefly exceeding $81,000, leaving it just above the threshold. Strong spot-fund inflows and expanding crypto liquidity support continued demand, but repeated rejection near $80,000-$81,200, elevated profit-taking and recent liquidation cascades make the outcome favored but far from guaranteed.

Points to YES

Starting above the threshold with nearby chart support raises the chance that ordinary price fluctuations leave Bitcoin at or above $78,500 on August 28.
Around August 26, Bitcoin was about $78,900 after briefly reaching $81,237, with cited support at $77,000-$78,000 and then $75,000.
Persistent spot-fund buying can absorb profit-taking and help Bitcoin remain above the threshold through the deadline.
U.S. spot Bitcoin funds recorded $337.6 million of net inflows on August 24, extending a six-session inflow streak to $2.26 billion.

Points to NO

Repeated failure to hold $80,000 as support leaves Bitcoin vulnerable to another retreat through the narrowly lower threshold.
On August 25, Bitcoin rose above $80,000 to about $81,100 before falling back below $80,000 as the U.S. session opened, failing its initial support test.
Large unrealized gains and heavy exchange deposits increase the risk that profit-taking pushes Bitcoin below $78,500 before the deadline.
On August 25, unrealized trader profit margins were reported at 20.5%, while exchange inflows approached 53,000 Bitcoin, their highest level since June.
Recent liquidation cascades show that leveraged selling can rapidly overwhelm nearby support, creating meaningful downside risk despite the favorable starting position.
On August 22, Bitcoin fell from roughly $78,000 toward $77,000 amid about $529 million of liquidations in one hour, mostly from long positions.

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