PolymarketSignal published Jul 31Q forecast updated 9d ago

Israel-Iran Ceasefire Probable Through August 15

Buy YES

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

24h volume $22kMarket deadline Aug 15P(YES)

Realized · held to resolution+18%$100 paper stake

Polymarket76¢ → 90¢

Our position · YES76¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 17

Jul 31 forecast

The ceasefire is probable to hold because Israel remains sidelined and Iran targets US assets, leaving little motive for direct strikes in 15 days.

Points to NO

The packet lacks updates for Aug 1-15, creating an information gap about recent events that could have changed dynamics.
Evidence
US-Iran conflict is intense and could escalate in ways that draw Israel in, either through miscalculation or deliberate expansion.
Evidence

Points to YES

Israel has remained sidelined from direct strikes since an interim deal, with Netanyahu stating Israel will only respond if attacked and otherwise trusting US judgment.
Evidence
Iran's military actions through July 30 are directed at US forces and assets in Jordan, Kuwait, and elsewhere—not at Israel directly.
Evidence
The window is only 15 days (July 31 to Aug 15), which limits the time for strategic shifts, planning, and execution of a direct strike.
Evidence

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