Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $85 in August?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−99%$100 paper stake

Polymarket50¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO50¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 27 forecast

WTI has retreated to roughly $82 with only the final August sessions remaining, so a qualifying $85 touch is a meaningful underdog.

Sub-$85 trading through month-end is more likely after a sharp retreat and three consecutive losing sessions. A qualifying touch remains plausible because WTI recently traded above the threshold and unresolved Hormuz and Russian supply risks could trigger another abrupt rally. However, earlier highs reported by other price histories do not establish a qualifying result without the designated Pyth one-minute record and market-creation timing.

Points to NO

The recent selloff leaves WTI needing a fast rebound during a shrinking window, reducing the chance of a qualifying $85 touch.
On August 27, delayed continuous WTI was $82.09 after reaching a session high of $82.22, with both figures below $85.
Progress toward managed Hormuz shipping could further reduce the disruption premium and keep WTI below the threshold.
On August 25, Iran and Oman moved toward an interim Hormuz shipping-management agreement, described as the first diplomatic progress in weeks.
Rising producer supply can absorb some disruption risk, limiting the strength and duration of any rebound before month-end.
Reported July OPEC output rose by about 1.17 million barrels per day, and OPEC+ approved another September quota increase.

Points to YES

Hormuz remains constrained and Russian energy infrastructure is under attack, leaving a credible path to a sudden supply-driven rally.
On August 27, Iran said its Oman agreement did not ensure an immediate Hormuz reopening, while Ukrainian strikes disrupted Russian refineries and ports.
WTI recently traded above $85 before retreating, showing that another threshold test remains feasible under current volatility.
On August 25, October WTI reached $85.84 before settling at $82.36.

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