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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 7, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+25%$100 paper stake
Polymarket80¢ 100¢
Our position · YES80¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Aug 31 forecast

Reported routing to newer Fable checkpoints suggests launch staging, so Anthropic's next Mythos-class model release by September 7 is likely.

Recent reports of users being routed toward newer Fable checkpoints provide the clearest sign of launch preparation. The evidence remains unofficial: alleged test models disappeared, Fable 5.1 is unconfirmed, and Anthropic said another internal model lacked completed assessments and an external-release plan. Even so, the checkpoint activity, Anthropic's recent release cadence, and its promise of more capable models in the coming months make a qualifying release likely, with meaningful uncertainty concentrated in the final days.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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