Will SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes?
Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket62¢ → 0¢
Our position · YES62¢ → 0¢
Signal endedSep 7
Forecast updatedSep 5
Sep 4 forecast
The latest major polls cluster inside the target interval, so an SPD second-vote share in the 7–9% bracket is likely with meaningful uncertainty.
Recent polling is concentrated around the target: the newest Forschungsgruppe Wahlen estimate is 8.5%, Infratest dimap reports 8%, and the weighted average is 7.4%. That clustering and the SPD’s 8.4% result in 2021 make a 7–9% finish likely with meaningful uncertainty. A large undecided pool, polling error, and late tactical voting leave live paths below the floor or above the ceiling.
Points to YES
- The newest poll places SPD near the middle of the target bracket.On September 3, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen reported SPD at 8.5% after interviewing 1,044 voters from September 1–3.
- The broader polling picture also centers SPD inside the target range.PolitPro’s September 3 weighted polling average placed SPD at 7.4% in Saxony-Anhalt.
- SPD’s previous state-election result closely matches the range indicated by current polls.SPD received 8.4% of valid votes in the June 2021 Saxony-Anhalt election.
Points to NO
- A substantial pool of unsettled voters creates meaningful risk around a narrow target interval.On September 2, ZDF-Politbarometer figures showed 26% of respondents were still unsure whom or whether they would vote for.
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