Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Realized · 7-day hold+2%$100 paper stake

Polymarket20¢ → 19¢

Our position · NO80¢ → 81¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updatedSep 2

Aug 28 forecast

Every recent seat projection leaves the AfD short, so an absolute Landtag majority is a long shot.

The AfD enters the final campaign far ahead, yet recent polling and seat estimates consistently leave it below half the Landtag. Its path to a majority depends on a favorable threshold outcome, especially smaller parties narrowly failing to enter. That route remains possible, but it requires several close breaks rather than merely an AfD victory.

Points to NO

The newest combined polling picture projects the AfD several seats short, making a majority difficult without a late shift in votes or threshold outcomes.
On 28 August, PolitPro's weighted election trend projected the AfD winning 39 of 83 seats, below the 42 needed for an absolute majority.
A major late poll still leaves multiple other parties represented, preserving enough competing votes to deny the AfD half the seats.
The 26 August Infratest dimap figures put the AfD at 42%, while the CDU, Linke, SPD and Greens all cleared the parliamentary threshold; reporting said this would not produce an AfD majority.
Late tactical voting aimed at preserving smaller anti-AfD parties could keep more votes inside seat allocation and widen the AfD's shortfall.
On 19 August, campaign groups urged tactical votes for the SPD and Greens specifically to keep them above the five-percent threshold.

Points to YES

The five-percent threshold leaves a narrow route to a majority because excluded votes can lift the AfD above half the allocated seats without half the statewide vote.
A calculation based on the 24 August Civey poll found that moving the Greens from 5% to 4.9%, with other figures unchanged, would lift the AfD's allocated-seat share above half.

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