Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake
Polymarket72¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢
Signal endedSep 7
Forecast updatedSep 3
Repeated seat projections cluster inside the target range, so AfD winning 38–41 seats in Saxony-Anhalt is likely, with meaningful uncertainty.
The latest trend places AfD at 39 seats, while several earlier projections also fall within the 38–41 range. That consistency makes the target range likely despite its narrow width. The main threats are AfD overperformance, threshold shifts among smaller parties, and overhang or compensatory seats changing the chamber size.
Points to YES
- The latest election trend places AfD near the center of the target range.On September 2, 2026, the election trend projected AfD to win 39 seats.
- An earlier late-August projection also placed AfD inside the range at its upper edge.On August 21, 2026, the election trend projected AfD to win 41 seats.
Points to NO
- AfD’s strongest recent polling creates a meaningful risk of finishing above 41 seats.The INSA poll conducted from August 26 through September 1, 2026, put AfD at 43%.
- Smaller parties sitting near the electoral threshold make AfD’s exact seat count fragile.On September 2, 2026, the election trend put the Greens at 5.3%, BSW at 3.9%, and FDP at 3.1%.
- Overhang and compensatory seats can make the actual allocation differ from standard poll-based projections.On August 26, 2026, reporting noted that theoretical seat distributions omit possible overhang and compensatory seats.
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