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PolymarketSignal published

Houthi Shipping Strike Unlikely To Land By July 31

Buy NO

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket44¢ → 100¢
Our position · NO56¢ → 0¢
Signal endedJul 23
Jul 17 forecast

The Houthis are unlikely to successfully strike shipping by July 31 because coalition interceptions have consistently neutralized their attempts.

Points to NO
  • Multinational interception effectiveness and analyst assessments indicate successful strikes remain unlikely
    Evidence
Points to YES
  • Completed deployments near Bab el-Mandeb and prior July 13/16 targeting attempts demonstrate retained capability and intent
    Evidence

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