Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Realized · 7-day hold+8%$100 paper stake
Polymarket30¢ → 25¢
Our position · NO70¢ → 75¢
Signal endedJul 21
Forecast updatedJul 26
Jul 14 forecast
Iran is unlikely to fully close its airspace by July 31 because it kept the eastern Tehran flight region open even through a 140-target US strike wave.
Iran absorbed 140 US strikes on July 13-14 without closing the eastern FIR, proving its commitment to partial closures. A general closure requires an unlikely eastward expansion of the conflict.
Points to NO
- Iran absorbed 140 US strikes without general closure, July 14
- Eastern Tehran FIR maintained open above FL285, July 8Evidence
Points to YES
- US scheduled naval blockade against Iran, July 14
- Iran fired ballistic missiles at US base, July 13
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