Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $90 Week of August 31 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−99%$100 paper stake

Polymarket37¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO63¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Repeated resistance near $87 leaves WTI needing another abrupt surge, so a $90 print this week is a meaningful underdog.

Renewed U.S.-Iran attacks have pushed WTI to around $87.4, leaving the threshold within reach during volatile trading. Yet repeated August failures near $87 and recovering Persian Gulf exports mean the rally probably needs a fresh supply shock rather than ordinary follow-through. A $90 print this week is a meaningful underdog, though abrupt Hormuz disruption could still produce it before Friday.

Points to NO

WTI repeatedly failed near $87 during August, creating resistance below the $90 threshold.
On August 31, WTI was reported to have reversed from an August ceiling around $87 on every attempt that month.
Recovering Persian Gulf exports limit evidence of a physical shortage capable of driving WTI above $90.
On August 31, Persian Gulf oil exports were assessed at around two-thirds of their pre-war level, with crude-price upside viewed as limited.

Points to YES

Renewed direct U.S.-Iran attacks increase the risk of an abrupt oil-supply premium.
On August 30, the United States attacked Iranian military facilities on Larak Island, and Iran retaliated against bases in Jordan.
WTI has moved close enough to $90 for another conflict-driven jump to reach the threshold.
On August 31, WTI rose to around $87.4 following renewed military escalation between the United States and Iran.
Monday's strong futures gain shows that buyers are reacting forcefully to escalation headlines.
October WTI futures closed August 31 up $2.36, or 2.83%, for the session.

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