Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Realized · 7-day hold−1%$100 paper stake
Polymarket18¢ → 19¢
Our position · NO82¢ → 81¢
Signal endedSep 5
Forecast updatedSep 2
Aug 29 forecast
Every recent seat projection leaves the AfD short, so an absolute Landtag majority is a long shot.
The AfD is positioned to become the largest party by a wide margin, but that is not enough under the seat-only resolution rule. Recent surveys and seat calculations consistently place it below an absolute majority. Its remaining route depends on a late AfD surge or enough votes being excluded because smaller parties fail to enter the Landtag.
Points to NO
- The newest seat projection leaves the AfD three seats short, making a late change in votes or threshold outcomes necessary for a majority.On August 29, the PolitPro election trend projected the AfD to win 39 of 83 seats, below the 42-seat majority threshold.
- Another late survey shows a larger seat deficit, reinforcing that the AfD needs movement beyond ordinary variation to govern alone.Fieldwork conducted August 25–27 put the AfD at 40% and allocated it 37 of 83 seats.
- Current smaller-party support leaves too few excluded votes to convert the AfD's measured vote share into most seats.On August 28, ZDF calculated that with 9% of votes excluded, the AfD would need more than 45.5% for an absolute majority, compared with its measured 40%.
Points to YES
- The AfD's commanding lead keeps a late majority path open because even modest additional support could have an outsized seat effect near party thresholds.The August 28 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen result put the AfD at 40%, still 17 points ahead of the CDU.
- Exclusion of more small-party votes could lower the vote share needed for an AfD seat majority and create a narrow route without majority voter support.On August 28, ZDF calculated that if 15% of votes went to parties below the threshold, slightly more than 42.5% could suffice for a seat majority.
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