Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Realized · 7-day hold−3%$100 paper stake
Polymarket76¢ → 74¢
Our position · YES76¢ → 74¢
Signal endedSep 6
Forecast updatedSep 3
Aug 30 forecast
The newest election trend projects 39 AfD seats, so a 38–41-seat AfD result is likely with meaningful uncertainty.
The newest election trend assigns the AfD 39 seats, matching an earlier INSA-based estimate, while another late survey conversion produced 37. A constituency nowcast showing AfD leads in 40 of 41 districts reinforces the target range, but unsettled voters, polling error and small-party thresholds could alter the final allocation. Overall, a 38–41-seat result is likely with meaningful uncertainty.
Points to YES
- The latest election trend places the AfD near the center of the 38–41-seat bracket.On August 30, 2026, PolitPro projected the AfD to win 39 seats with 41.8% of the vote.
- AfD strength across constituencies supports a seat total near the target range.An August 26, 2026 constituency nowcast showed the AfD leading the first vote in 40 of Saxony-Anhalt’s 41 constituencies.
- An earlier poll-based conversion also produced 39 seats, showing the target is not confined to one snapshot.PolitPro’s projection from the INSA poll conducted July 31–August 6 assigned the AfD 39 seats.
Points to NO
- A separate late survey conversion puts the AfD just below the target range.On August 28, 2026, a calculation based on the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey gave the AfD 37 seats in an 83-seat Landtag.
- Small-party threshold outcomes can shift the exact AfD allocation outside a narrow four-seat bracket.On August 12, 2026, DIE ZEIT reported substantial uncertainty over whether the Greens, SPD and BSW would clear the five-percent threshold.
- A large unsettled electorate leaves room for a late vote shift that changes the seat count.The August 25–27 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey found that 31% of respondents were not yet certain whom, or whether, they would vote for.
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