PolymarketSignal published Jul 15Q forecast updated 26d ago

Houthis Likely To Hit Red Sea Shipping By July 31

Buy YES

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)

Realized · 7-day hold−8%$100 paper stake

Polymarket36¢ → 33¢

Our position · YES36¢ → 33¢

Signal endedJul 22

Jul 15 forecast

The Houthis are likely to strike Red Sea commercial shipping by July 31 because US naval forces focused on the Strait of Hormuz leave them operational freedom.

Points to NO

Armed guards successfully repelled July 13 approach.
Armed security repelled 6-boat approach off Aden, July 13
Evidence

Points to YES

Houthis successfully sank two vessels in early July.
Houthis sank two commercial vessels, July 6 to 9
Evidence
Iranian officials threatened Bab el-Mandeb closure.
Houthi official threatened Bab el-Mandeb strait closure, July 14
Evidence
US naval assets diverted to active Hormuz conflict.
CENTCOM launched third round of strikes against Iran, July 12
Evidence

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