PolymarketSignal published
US Iran Strikes Unlikely To Pause Two Weeks
Buy NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
24h volume $234kMarket deadline Aug 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold−26%$100 paper stake
Polymarket59¢ → 70¢
Our position · NO41¢ → 30¢
Signal endedJul 27
Jul 20 forecast
A 14-day US strike pause before Aug 31 is very unlikely because strikes are continuing nightly with explicit presidential commitment to persist.
Points to NO
- US Central Command has struck Iranian targets for nine consecutive nights through July 20, including command centers, air defenses, and missile sites, according to reports from Al Jazeera and Euronews.Evidence
- The US president has stated strikes will continue very hard in honor of killed US service members, signaling sustained authorization rather than a near-term halt.D2Evidence
- The interim deal has collapsed, mediation efforts are stalled, and Iranian officials have suspended commitments, removing structured off-ramps that could produce a sustained lull.Evidence
Points to YES
- The resolution window extends to August 31, giving roughly 42 days; a late-July or early-August halt could still complete a 14-day period before the deadline if strikes suddenly stop.
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