Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,000 on Aug 28?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · YES36¢

PublishedAug 26

Aug 26 forecast

Bitcoin is already hovering just above the cutoff after a powerful spot-supported rally, so an August 28 price at or above $79,000 is favored.

Bitcoin enters the final days close to the required level after strong spot demand and rapid upward momentum. That proximity favors an above-threshold price, but rejection near $81,000, stretched momentum and evidence of short covering leave substantial downside risk.

Points to YES

Bitcoin’s latest supplied reading was slightly above the cutoff, limiting the additional buying required and making an above-threshold finish more attainable.
On August 26, the supplied Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust record showed $79,205.81, up 0.87% for the day after trading between $78,303.29 and $79,239.50.
Strong spot-ETF inflows provide a source of demand that could absorb profit-taking and support Bitcoin near the threshold.
U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $1.9 billion in the week preceding August 25, their largest weekly inflow since October 2025.
The recent rally has demonstrated enough upward momentum to recover quickly from dips and revisit prices comfortably above the cutoff.
On August 25, Bitcoin touched $81,237.94, its highest level since mid-May, after rising 28% during August.

Points to NO

Rejection at major resistance and stretched momentum increase the chance that profit-taking pushes Bitcoin below the threshold before the fixing.
On August 25, Bitcoin briefly traded above $81,000 before easing toward $80,700, while daily RSI near 84 indicated a stretched advance into resistance around $80,800 to $84,000.
Heavy short covering rather than expanding leveraged demand makes the rally more vulnerable once forced buying subsides.
Bitcoin-denominated futures open interest fell to about 587,584 BTC on August 25, its lowest in nearly five months, indicating that short closures contributed substantially to the rally.

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