PolymarketSignal published Jul 13Q forecast updated 27d ago

Hormuz Transits Set To Stay Below 40 Through July

Buy NO

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)

Realized · 7-day hold+43%$100 paper stake

Polymarket36¢ → 9¢

Our position · NO64¢ → 91¢

Signal endedJul 20

Jul 13 forecast

Daily Strait of Hormuz transits will very likely stay under 40 through July 31, because Iran has formally closed the strait amid unprecedented escalation.

Points to NO

July 12 escalation crashed transit volume
Kpler tracking recorded 14 commercial vessel transits on July 12.
Evidence
July 11 traffic hit 24 vessels
Anadolu recorded 24 commercial vessel transits on July 11.
Evidence
War-risk premiums strictly block entry
War-risk premiums reached eight times pre-crisis levels, July 13.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.