Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Realized · 7-day hold−3%$100 paper stake
Polymarket76¢ → 74¢
Our position · YES76¢ → 74¢
Signal endedSep 6
Forecast updatedSep 3
Aug 30 forecast
Multiple recent seat projections fall inside the target band, so an AfD result of 38–41 seats is likely despite threshold uncertainty.
Recent parliamentary compositions repeatedly give the AfD 39 or 41 seats, directly inside the target band. One application of a newer projection produced 37 seats, while several smaller parties remain close enough to the threshold for slight vote shifts to change the allocation. Polling error and unsettled voters leave meaningful uncertainty, but the concentration of in-range seat estimates makes 38–41 seats likely.
Points to YES
- The latest trend-based parliamentary composition places the AfD near the target band’s midpoint.On August 30, the trend-based composition projected 39 AfD seats.
- A separate poll-based composition also places the AfD near the band’s midpoint.The August 6 poll-based parliamentary composition projected 39 AfD seats.
- An earlier trend snapshot reached the top of the target range, reinforcing the cluster of qualifying outcomes.On August 21, a trend snapshot projected 41 AfD seats in a four-party parliament.
Points to NO
- Several smaller parties are near the electoral threshold, making a narrow seat range vulnerable to small vote shifts.On August 30, the Greens stood at 5.4%, BSW at 3.9%, and the FDP at 3.2% in the election trend.
- One recent application of a major polling projection puts the AfD just below the target band.On August 28, an analyst calculated that the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen projection would yield 37 AfD seats.
- A substantial unsettled electorate leaves room for the final vote to depart from current seat projections.In the August 25–27 survey, 31% had not decided for certain whom or whether they would vote for.
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