PolymarketSignal published
US Strikes Block 14-Day Iran Pause By Deadline
Buy NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
24h volume $600kMarket deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold−43%$100 paper stake
Polymarket20¢ → 55¢
Our position · NO80¢ → 45¢
Signal endedJul 27
Jul 20 forecast
The outcome is no; strikes through July 20 make any 14-day window start too late to finish by July 31.
Points to NO
- US strikes were confirmed on July 16, July 18, and July 20 by CENTCOM, AP, and Al Jazeera, leaving no earlier start for a 14-day window.Evidence
- Only 11 days remain until July 31, so any window starting July 21 runs past the resolution date before completing 14 days.
- The resolution criteria check for a completed period; a span that ends in August is not assessable by July 31.
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