Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · YES58¢

PublishedSep 6

Sep 6 forecast

Pre-release forecasts keep August headline inflation above the threshold, so U.S. CPI inflation above 3.3% is likely with meaningful uncertainty.

July inflation was already just above the threshold, and the August gasoline rebound removed an important source of headline disinflation. Pre-release estimates point to another firm headline month, while sticky housing and transportation costs provide additional support. The main uncertainty is that core inflation, shelter growth, and apartment rents have softened, leaving little room for an unexpectedly weak August reading.

Points to YES

July inflation entered the final month just above the strict threshold.
On August 12, the all-items CPI was reported at 3.4% year over year in July, down from 3.5% in June.
A prominent pre-release forecast keeps August headline inflation above 3.3%.
On September 4, RBC Economics forecast August headline CPI to rise 0.4% from July and remain at 3.4% year over year.
The August gasoline rebound adds direct upward pressure to headline CPI.
The U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline reached $4.07 per gallon on August 31, while gasoline inventories were below their five-year average.

Points to NO

Underlying inflation and shelter growth were easing before August.
On August 12, July core CPI was reported at 2.5% year over year, down from 2.6% in June, while shelter rose only 0.1% during the month.
Fresh apartment-rent data indicate continued housing disinflation.
National apartment rents declined 0.03% from July to August 2026.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.