Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

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Signal ended

Entry · YES63¢

PublishedSep 10

Sep 9 forecast

Most current estimates center on 3.4%, just above the cutoff, so August year-over-year CPI above 3.3% is likely with meaningful uncertainty.

August headline CPI is likely to exceed 3.3% because the official July rate was 3.4% and several August previews center on 3.4%. Elevated year-over-year energy inflation supports the headline measure, while soft core inflation, July’s weak monthly gain, and the narrow cushion above the cutoff leave meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

Pre-release estimates cluster just above the cutoff.
On September 9, a September 4–9 poll forecast 3.4% year-over-year CPI inflation for August 2026.
The latest official annual CPI rate was already above the threshold.
The CPI-U increased 3.4% over the 12 months ending July 2026, according to the August 12 release.
Elevated energy inflation continues to lift the headline rate.
Energy CPI was 14.7% higher in July 2026 than a year earlier.

Points to NO

Soft core inflation leaves the headline rate dependent on volatile energy prices.
Core CPI increased 2.5% over the 12 months ending July 2026, down from 2.6% in June.
Recent monthly headline inflation was weak despite the elevated annual rate.
Seasonally adjusted all-items CPI increased 0.1% in July 2026 after falling 0.4% in June.

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