PolymarketSignal published
Israel-Iran Ceasefire Likely Holds Through August 2
Buy YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
Market deadline Aug 2P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution+27%$100 paper stake
Polymarket79¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES79¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 5
Jul 29 forecast
With only four days left and no direct strikes reported since the market opened, the paused Israel-Iran front is very likely to survive the window.
Points to NO
- Regional tensions remain elevated, and both sides retain military capability; a rapid escalation or miscalculation is possible though not signaled.Evidence
Points to YES
- No direct Israel-Iran strikes reported from market creation (Jul 27) through Jul 29; recent Iranian attacks targeted US forces and were intercepted.Evidence
- Both sides have halted direct retaliatory operations for multiple consecutive days, with mediators working on de-escalation.Evidence
- Only four days remain until the Aug 2 deadline, severely constraining the time needed to plan, authorize, execute, and confirm a qualifying strike.Evidence
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