US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · 7-day hold+174%$100 paper stake

Polymarket71¢ → 21¢

Our position · NO29¢ → 79¢

Signal endedJul 14

Jul 7 forecast

A formal senior-level US-Iran meeting is unlikely by July 31 because Iran's leadership transition blocks any rapid move to real negotiations.

Technical criteria exclusions and Iranian domestic constraints strongly favor a NO outcome, overriding the high market price.

Points to NO

Strict definitional exclusion of technical and staff-level meetings
Resolution criteria explicitly exclude technical or follow-on meetings from qualifying
Islamabad talks designated explicitly as technical negotiations
Islamabad scheduled for July 11 US-Iran technical talks
Araghchi stated refusal limits senior engagement mandate
Araghchi rejected final negotiations amidst US threats, July 7

Points to YES

US military coercion creates rapid settlement pressure
Trump issued military force threat against Iran, July 6

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