Track record

Average paper return per Signal

+29.5%

0 open · 105 closed paper positions

Simulated paper returns do not represent actual trading and do not account for fees, liquidity, slippage, or actual fills; your results may differ.

Win rate

67%

Total paper P/L

+$3,101

Best +613.9% · Worst −99.9%

Portfolio equity (paper)

160 live signals are members-only.Get access

Jul 30Win

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket14¢→100¢

P/L+613.9%

Jul 2Win

GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket18¢→100¢

P/L+455.3%

Jul 30Win

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket19¢→100¢

P/L+426.1%

Jul 29Win

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket22¢→85¢

P/L+284.1%

Jul 14Win

Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket27¢→100¢

P/L+270.2%

Jul 29Win

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket22¢→80¢

P/L+261.4%

Jul 7Win

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket29¢→80¢

P/L+174.1%

Jul 16Win

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket40¢→100¢

P/L+149.9%

Jul 12Win

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket40¢→89¢

P/L+121.6%

Jul 12Win

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket36¢→78¢

P/L+115.3%

Jul 17Win

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket48¢→100¢

P/L+108.2%

Jul 13Win

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket46¢→90¢

P/L+95%

Jul 15Win

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket38¢→71¢

P/L+85.5%

Jul 24Win

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket55¢→99¢

P/L+79.9%

Jul 29Win

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket58¢→100¢

P/L+72.3%

Jul 29Win

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket58¢→100¢

P/L+72.3%

Jun 30Win

GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket53¢→91¢

P/L+71.7%

Jul 23Win

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket56¢→95¢

P/L+68.8%

Jul 23Win

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket60¢→100¢

P/L+66.6%

Jul 23Win

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket62¢→97¢

P/L+55.9%

Jul 13Win

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket64¢→100¢

P/L+55.7%

Aug 1Win

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket66¢→100¢

P/L+51.4%

Jul 19Win

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket63¢→94¢

P/L+48.4%

Jun 29Win

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket59¢→88¢

P/L+48.3%

Jul 17Win

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket56¢→81¢

P/L+44.6%

Jul 13Win

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket64¢→92¢

P/L+43%

Aug 7Win

Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket70¢→100¢

P/L+42.8%

Jul 24Win

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket70¢→100¢

P/L+42.8%

Jul 14Win

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket60¢→85¢

P/L+41.7%

Jul 19Win

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket62¢→88¢

P/L+41.1%

Jul 13Win

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket62¢→87¢

P/L+39.5%

Aug 8Win

Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket72¢→100¢

P/L+38.8%

Jul 1Win

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket69¢→96¢

P/L+38.4%

Jul 1Win

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket69¢→96¢

P/L+38.4%

Jul 12Win

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket68¢→93¢

P/L+36%

Aug 8Win

Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket74¢→100¢

P/L+35.1%

Aug 1Win

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket74¢→100¢

P/L+35.1%

Jul 19Win

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket74¢→100¢

P/L+34.9%

Jul 13Win

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket62¢→83¢

P/L+33.9%

Jul 13Win

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket62¢→82¢

P/L+32.3%

Jul 19Win

Iran full airspace closure by July 24?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket76¢→100¢

P/L+31.5%

Jul 17Win

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket60¢→79¢

P/L+30.8%

Jul 28Win

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket64¢→82¢

P/L+28.1%

Jul 12Win

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket70¢→90¢

P/L+27.9%

Jul 29Win

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket79¢→100¢

P/L+26.5%

Jul 19Win

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket74¢→93¢

P/L+25%

Jul 14Win

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket78¢→97¢

P/L+24.7%

Jul 16Win

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket76¢→95¢

P/L+24.3%

Jul 30Win

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket72¢→90¢

P/L+24.3%

Jul 14Win

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket74¢→92¢

P/L+23.6%

Jul 20Win

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket76¢→94¢

P/L+23%

Jul 20Win

Israel closes its airspace by August 15?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket68¢→84¢

P/L+22.8%

Jul 14Win

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket42¢→50¢

P/L+19%

Jun 29Win

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket56¢→67¢

P/L+18.7%

Jul 18Win

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket70¢→83¢

P/L+17.9%

Jul 31Win

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket76¢→90¢

P/L+17.8%

Jul 14Win

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket72¢→83¢

P/L+15.3%

Jul 20Win

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket84¢→96¢

P/L+13.7%

Jul 17Win

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket86¢→98¢

P/L+13.7%

Jul 14Win

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket78¢→88¢

P/L+12.2%

Jul 16Win

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket66¢→73¢

P/L+9.8%

Jul 17Win

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket78¢→86¢

P/L+9.6%

Jul 14Win

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket84¢→92¢

P/L+9.5%

Jul 14Win

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket70¢→76¢

P/L+7.9%

Jul 17Win

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket84¢→89¢

P/L+5.4%

Jul 15Win

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket64¢→67¢

P/L+4.7%

Jul 17Win

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket66¢→67¢

P/L+0.8%

Jul 17Loss

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket72¢→72¢

P/L−0.7%

Jul 12Loss

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket75¢→72¢

P/L−4%

Jul 8Loss

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket68¢→63¢

P/L−7.4%

Jul 15Loss

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket36¢→33¢

P/L−8.3%

Jul 18Loss

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket74¢→65¢

P/L−12.2%

Jul 17Loss

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket18¢→16¢

P/L−12.8%

Jul 18Loss

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket83¢→72¢

P/L−13.9%

Jul 18Loss

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket68¢→57¢

P/L−16.2%

Jul 20Loss

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket29¢→21¢

P/L−26.6%

Jul 6Loss

Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket50¢→35¢

P/L−30%

Jul 8Loss

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket62¢→38¢

P/L−38.7%

Jul 14Loss

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket20¢→12¢

P/L−39%

Jul 14Loss

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket60¢→36¢

P/L−40.8%

Jul 14Loss

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket62¢→36¢

P/L−41.9%

Jul 20Loss

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket86¢→50¢

P/L−42.4%

Jul 12Loss

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket28¢→16¢

P/L−42.9%

Jul 20Loss

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket80¢→45¢

P/L−43.1%

Jul 28Loss

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket44¢→22¢

P/L−48.9%

Jul 15Loss

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket23¢→11¢

P/L−54.3%

Jul 17Loss

Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket49¢→19¢

P/L−60.9%

Jul 14Loss

Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket36¢→12¢

P/L−65.7%

Jul 30Loss

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket34¢→10¢

P/L−72.1%

Jul 24Loss

Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket42¢→5¢

P/L−89.3%

Jul 24Loss

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket38¢→1¢

P/L−96.2%

Aug 1Loss

Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket32¢→1¢

P/L−97.3%

Jul 16Loss

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket42¢→1¢

P/L−98.8%

Jul 22Loss

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket38¢→0¢

P/L−99.9%

Jul 22Loss

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket56¢→0¢

P/L−99.9%

Jul 19Loss

Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket57¢→0¢

P/L−99.9%

Jul 21Loss

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?

Q → NOHold to resolution

Polymarket76¢→0¢

P/L−99.9%

Jul 30Loss

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Q → YESHold to resolution

Polymarket83¢→0¢

P/L−99.9%